I Bleed Blue and White

Leading off today is a guest posting from our buddy Andrew.  Andrew may be a regular contributor to IBBW, possibly adding a weekly commentary to our in-season lineup. {I have made no edits to Andrew’s work, only added a picture and made the formatting consistent with our site.}

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First of all, a shout out to my boys at IBBW for letting me guest post. I watched games with them all through college and as they’ve shown you over the past few years, they are knowledgeable, passionate fans with a talent for expressing. Now that we have completed a significant portion of the season, this piece is intended to be the first in a series of statistical posts using Ken Pomeroy’s (www.kenpom.com) online database to look deeper into this team’s success based on the black and white numbers.

Over the past few years we have witnessed the evolution of a basketball program. The Jay Wright era has seen an unprecedented run of success in every aspect of the program, ranging from recruiting to on the court performance. Behind a unique blend of veteran skill and youthful energy, this year’s entry has charged out of the gates to a school best start in the Big East, and despite recent hiccups, is poised for another deep run in March. In this blogger’s opinion the three biggest reasons for the success lie in the growth of 3 players at different stages of their careers: Scottie Reynolds, Corey Fisher and Antonio Pena. Building off Chris’s piece before senior night, I wanted to continue the Reynolds love fest by taking an in-depth look at his 2010 campaign.

Reynolds has parlayed the momentum from his celebrity like rise to fame last March into a late game swagger unrivaled by anyone (with maybe the exception of Sheron Collins) in the college game.

'lotta face

Scottie is a rarity in the college game; a four year player who was a starter and major contributor since stepping foot on campus as an 18 year old. Because of this we can look at his statistical output over his full tenure on the Main Line to help explain exactly where his game has improved and in turn see why he has evolved from an inexperienced combo player without a real position to a tenacious leader and legitimate NBA prospect.

Scotty has always been above average when it comes to offensive efficiency. He is heavily used on offense (27% of Villanova’s possessions this year end with him either making an assist or taking a shot, a rate that has been fairly steady throughout his career) but has managed to be in the top 500 players in the country in true shooting percentage (TS%) since his sophomore season (56.8%), improving each year to an all time high of 63.6%, good for 35^th best in the country as of when this article was written. A stat that really shows both increased efficiency and decision making, Scotty has improved mostly this year in raising his 2 point shooting percentage by over 10%, an absolutely incredible trend considering that this is where over 40% of his shots come from (including free throws and 3’s). Worth noting is that TS% is a statistic usually dominated by interior players who score most of their points in the paint (takes the average of FG%, 3P% and FT%, a guy who does nothing but dunk has a huge advantage on a diversified scorer such as Scottie).

Scottie has always been crafty at getting himself to the line but this year he is averaging almost an extra free throw per game over his career best (6.3), making him one of the top 100 (85) in this area as well. A final area where Reynolds has improved considerably statistically is in his Offensive Rating, which quantifies the amount of points scored per every 100 possessions where Scotty finishes the possession. His ranking of 120.5 is good for top 100 in the country in a category where he has never been in the top 100. While keeping high shooting percentages in 3’s (40.7%) and FT’s (82.2), the jump in 2’s shows that he is an elite scorer from anywhere on the floor. As we near Saturday night’s clash at the Carrier Dome, also of note is that the Orange’s Wesley Johnson, widely regarded as one of the frontrunners (along with Reynolds and The Gody) for Big East POY, has similar shooting splits (he takes a bit more 2’s and takes less 3’s than Scottie) but trails Scottie in every one of the aforementioned offensive efficiency categories.

As the regular season comes to a close, the scouts will undoubtedly debate whether or not Scottie is an NBA quality player. Hardwood critics (Doris Burke does not count as a critic; you need some form of basketball know-how to garner this title) will cite his lack of size, elite speed or athleticism and “lack of a true position” as reasons to keep him out. Fans will laud his shiftiness, leadership and his will to have the ball in his hand and make plays at the end of games as the intangibles that make him David Stern-handshake-worthy. There are merits to both sides but I would encourage each side to look deeper into the numbers: he is the epitome of what a college basketball player should be; a coachable four season student athlete who has improved both his game and his team each season.